A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
